Turkey

Turkey commands geography that empires have fought over for millennia. The Anatolian peninsula bridges Europe and Asia. The Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits control passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean—Russia’s only warm-water route to the world’s oceans. Istanbul, formerly Constantinople, was the capital of two of history’s greatest empires: Byzantium and the Ottomans. In modern geopolitics, Turkey’s position makes it simultaneously a NATO ally, a neighbor of perpetually unstable regions, a potential energy corridor, and a power pursuing its own distinct interests between competing blocs.

Geographic Foundations¶

The Crossroads Position¶

Turkey’s territory spans two continents and borders eight countries:

• European Turkey (Thrace): A small but strategically vital region bordering Greece and Bulgaria, providing Turkey’s foothold in Europe and proximity to the Balkans
• Asian Turkey (Anatolia): The vast majority of Turkish territory, a peninsula bounded by the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Aegean
• Eastern borders: Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan (via the Nakhchivan exclave), and Georgia

This position places Turkey at the intersection of Europe, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia—a crossroads where civilizations, trade routes, and conflicts converge.

The Turkish Straits¶

The Bosphorus and Dardanelles represent one of the world’s most consequential chokepoints:

• The Bosphorus: Seventeen miles long, dividing Istanbul between Europe and Asia, carrying 3% of global oil trade
• The Dardanelles: Connecting the Sea of Marmara to the Aegean and Mediterranean
• The Montreux Convention (1936): Governs transit through the straits, giving Turkey control while guaranteeing passage for Black Sea littoral states

For Russia, these straits represent both opportunity and vulnerability. The Black Sea Fleet can project power into the Mediterranean only through Turkish-controlled waters. In wartime, Turkey could close the straits to belligerents under Montreux provisions—as it did to warships following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Mountain Barriers and Contested Borders¶

Turkey’s geography includes natural defenses but also sources of tension:

• The Taurus and Pontic mountains: Forming natural barriers in the south and north
• The Kurdish-majority southeast: Mountainous terrain that has sustained decades of insurgency by the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party)
• The Syrian border: Nearly 900 kilometers of frontier with a fractured state
• The Armenian and Iranian borders: Connecting Turkey to the Caucasus and the Persian world

Geography makes Turkey both a barrier protecting Europe from Middle Eastern instability and a conduit through which that instability can spread.

Historical Legacies¶

The Ottoman Inheritance¶

Modern Turkey emerged from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire:

• Imperial extent: At its height, the Ottomans ruled the Balkans, the Arab world, North Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean
• World War I defeat: Alliance with Germany led to dismemberment; the Treaty of Sevres (1920) proposed partitioning Anatolia itself
• The War of Independence (1919-1923): Mustafa Kemal Ataturk rallied Turkish forces, expelled foreign occupiers, and established the republic
• The Treaty of Lausanne (1923): Recognized Turkish sovereignty over Anatolia and Thrace, establishing the modern state’s borders

This history shapes Turkish strategic culture: a determination never again to be dismembered, sensitivity to foreign interference, and ambivalence about former Ottoman territories now ruled by others.

Kemalist Secularism and Westernization¶

Ataturk imposed revolutionary transformation:

• Abolition of the caliphate: Ending Ottoman claims to Islamic leadership
• Secularization: Separation of religion from state, replacement of Islamic law with European codes
• Westernization: Latin alphabet, European dress codes, industrial development
• Neutrality: Avoiding entanglement in World War II

For decades, the Turkish military served as guardian of this secular order, intervening repeatedly against governments it deemed threatening to Kemalist principles. This tension between secular nationalism and Islamic identity remains central to Turkish politics.

NATO Membership and Western Alignment¶

Cold War Alliance¶

Turkey joined NATO in 1952, becoming the alliance’s southeastern anchor:

• Containment of the Soviet Union: Turkish territory blocked Soviet access to the Mediterranean and the Middle East
• Forward defense: American nuclear weapons deployed on Turkish soil; intelligence facilities monitored Soviet communications
• The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Soviet missiles in Cuba were traded, in part, for withdrawal of American Jupiter missiles from Turkey
• Military modernization: NATO membership brought American weapons, training, and integration with Western forces

Turkey’s strategic value was unambiguous: it possessed the alliance’s second-largest military, controlled the straits, and bordered the Soviet Union directly.

Post-Cold War Complications¶

The Soviet collapse transformed but did not eliminate Turkey’s strategic importance:

• The Gulf War (1991): Turkey supported the coalition against Iraq, allowing operations from its bases
• Balkans conflicts: Turkish interest in Bosnia’s Muslims complicated NATO operations
• EU membership bid: Application in 1987 led to decades of negotiations that have effectively stalled
• The Iraq War (2003): Turkish parliament refused American requests to invade Iraq from Turkish territory—a significant breach with Washington

These episodes revealed that Turkish and Western interests, while often aligned, were not identical.

Contemporary Tensions with NATO¶

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, strains have multiplied:

• The S-400 controversy: Turkey’s 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems prompted American sanctions and exclusion from the F-35 fighter program. NATO viewed the purchase as a security risk; Turkey insisted on its sovereign right to diversify arms sources.
• Eastern Mediterranean disputes: Turkish claims to continental shelf zones conflict with Greece and Cyprus, both EU members; Turkish naval vessels have confronted Greek and French ships
• Swedish and Finnish NATO accession: Turkey initially blocked both applications, demanding action against Kurdish groups it considers terrorists, before eventually assenting
• Authoritarian drift: The 2016 coup attempt and subsequent crackdown, erosion of judicial independence, and restrictions on press freedom have complicated Turkey’s standing with democratic allies

Turkey remains formally committed to NATO and hosts critical alliance infrastructure, including the Incirlik air base. But it is no longer the reliable Cold War partner it once was.

Relations with Russia¶

Historical Enmity¶

Turkey and Russia have been rivals for centuries:

• Twelve Russo-Turkish wars between the 17th and 20th centuries
• Competition for the Caucasus, the Balkans, and the Black Sea
• Ottoman decline partly attributable to Russian pressure
• Cold War confrontation as members of opposing blocs

This history makes contemporary Turkish-Russian cooperation all the more remarkable.

The Erdogan-Putin Relationship¶

Since the mid-2010s, Turkey and Russia have developed a complex partnership:

• Economic ties: Russia is Turkey’s largest source of natural gas; millions of Russian tourists visit Turkish resorts annually; the Akkuyu nuclear plant is being built by Rosatom
• Military coordination in Syria: Despite backing opposing sides—Russia supports Assad, Turkey supports some rebels—the two powers have negotiated ceasefires and deconfliction arrangements
• The S-400 purchase: Both a transaction and a signal of Turkish willingness to defy American preferences
• Mediation on Ukraine: Turkey hosted early peace talks and brokered the Black Sea grain deal

Yet the relationship has limits. Turkey closed the straits to Russian warships after the Ukraine invasion, supplied Bayraktar drones to Ukraine that devastated Russian armor, and competes with Russia for influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. This is not alliance but tactical alignment on specific issues combined with structural competition on others.

The Straits as Leverage¶

Control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles gives Turkey unique leverage over Russia:

• Peacetime transit is guaranteed by the Montreux Convention, but wartime restrictions apply
• Turkey’s 2022 closure to warships demonstrated this leverage in practice
• Any post-war settlement in the Black Sea region will require Turkish acquiescence
• Russian dependence on the straits limits how far Moscow can push against Turkish interests

Geography ensures that Turkey will always matter to Russia—and vice versa.

Middle Eastern Involvement¶

From Detachment to Intervention¶

For decades, Turkey avoided deep involvement in Arab affairs. This changed under Erdogan:

• “Zero problems with neighbors”: Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s initial doctrine sought good relations with all regional states
• The Arab Spring: Turkey backed Islamist movements, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, alienating Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE
• The Syrian civil war: Turkey supports opposition groups, hosts millions of refugees, and has conducted multiple military operations against Kurdish forces and ISIS

The result has been deeper entanglement in regional conflicts without commensurate gains.

The Kurdish Question¶

The Kurdish issue connects Turkish domestic politics to regional strategy:

• Domestic dimension: Turkey’s Kurdish population (15-20% of the total) has long sought greater rights; the PKK has waged insurgency since 1984
• Syrian Kurds: The YPG, linked to the PKK, became Washington’s primary partner against ISIS, infuriating Ankara
• Iraqi Kurdistan: The Kurdistan Regional Government maintains ties with Turkey while hosting PKK elements Turkey considers terrorists
• Turkish military operations: Repeated incursions into Syria and Iraq target Kurdish forces

For Turkey, preventing Kurdish autonomy along its borders is a vital interest that often conflicts with American policy.

Regional Ambitions¶

Erdogan has pursued a more assertive regional role:

• Libya intervention (2019-2020): Turkish military support saved the Tripoli government, securing maritime boundary agreements and influence
• Qatar alignment: Turkey backed Qatar during the Gulf blockade, establishing a military base
• Competition with UAE and Saudi Arabia: Divergent positions on the Muslim Brotherhood and regional conflicts created lasting tensions
• Normalization efforts: Recent years have seen attempts to repair relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE

Turkey seeks recognition as a major regional power, though resources and complications limit what it can achieve.

Energy Corridor Ambitions¶

Geographic Advantage¶

Turkey’s position makes it a natural transit route for energy:

• Between producers and consumers: Oil and gas from the Caspian, Central Asia, and the Middle East can reach European markets through Turkish territory
• Diversification for Europe: Routes through Turkey reduce European dependence on Russian energy
• Multiple existing pipelines: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), and the TurkStream gas pipeline from Russia

Strategic Implications¶

Turkey has leveraged its corridor position:

• Caspian energy: Turkish pipelines carry Azerbaijani oil and gas westward, bypassing both Russia and Iran
• The Southern Gas Corridor: TANAP connects to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, bringing Caspian gas to Europe
• TurkStream: Russia’s pipeline bypasses Ukraine, making Turkey a node in Russian energy strategy as well
• Hub ambitions: Turkey seeks to become a gas trading hub, though physical constraints and regulatory challenges complicate this goal

Energy transit provides revenue, leverage, and strategic importance—but also entangles Turkey in the geopolitics of both supplier and consumer states.

Erdogan’s Foreign Policy¶

Personalization and Ideology¶

Under Erdogan, Turkish foreign policy has become more personalized and ideologically inflected:

• Presidential dominance: The 2017 constitutional referendum concentrated power in the presidency, reducing institutional checks on foreign policy
• Islamic identity: Erdogan has emphasized Turkey’s Islamic heritage, departing from strict Kemalist secularism
• Neo-Ottoman rhetoric: References to Ottoman history, though often symbolic, signal ambitions beyond Turkey’s current borders
• Transactional approach: Erdogan has shown willingness to deal with all sides, extracting concessions through calculated unpredictability

Strategic Autonomy¶

Turkey under Erdogan pursues what might be termed strategic autonomy:

• Refusal to choose camps: Turkey maintains NATO membership while purchasing Russian weapons and coordinating with Moscow in Syria
• Leveraging position: Turkey extracts concessions by threatening to block NATO decisions or pivot toward Russia
• Independent action: Military interventions in Syria, Iraq, and Libya proceeded regardless of American or European objections
• Defense industry development: Turkey has invested heavily in indigenous weapons production, including the Bayraktar drones that gained fame in Ukraine

This approach yields flexibility but also friction with both Western allies and regional rivals.

Domestic Drivers¶

Foreign policy serves domestic purposes:

• Nationalism: Assertive foreign policy appeals to Turkish national pride
• Diversion: External adventures can distract from economic difficulties
• Electoral calculations: Erdogan’s coalition includes both Islamists and nationalists who favor an assertive posture
• Regime security: The 2016 coup attempt intensified suspicion of Western intentions and willingness to act unilaterally

Understanding Turkish foreign policy requires understanding Erdogan’s domestic position.

Turkey and the Emerging Order¶

Between Blocs¶

Turkey’s strategic position in a multipolar world remains ambiguous:

• NATO member: Turkey remains formally allied with the West, hosting critical military infrastructure
• Russia engagement: Economic ties and tactical coordination continue despite fundamental tensions
• BRICS interest: Turkey has expressed interest in joining BRICS, signaling dissatisfaction with its Western integration
• Middle power diplomacy: Turkey cultivates relationships across regions, seeking maximum flexibility

Turkey is not leaving the West, but it is no longer unambiguously part of it.

Constraints and Vulnerabilities¶

Turkish ambitions face significant constraints:

• Economic fragility: Currency crises, inflation, and structural weaknesses limit resources for power projection
• Demographic challenges: A large young population requires economic opportunity Turkey struggles to provide
• Overextension risk: Simultaneous involvement in Syria, Libya, the Caucasus, and the eastern Mediterranean strains capacity
• Isolation potential: Antagonizing too many powers simultaneously could leave Turkey without reliable partners

Turkey’s geographic assets are considerable, but geography alone does not guarantee success.

Conclusion¶

Turkey defies easy categorization. It is a NATO ally that buys Russian weapons, a secular republic with an Islamist government, a European Union candidate that drifts toward authoritarianism, a Middle Eastern power that is not Arab. Its geography—the straits, the continental bridge, the borders with chaos and opportunity alike—ensures that Turkey will matter regardless of its internal choices.

The question is how Turkey will use its position. Under Erdogan, Turkey has pursued maximum flexibility, extracting benefits from all sides while committing fully to none. This approach has yielded short-term gains but created long-term uncertainties. Allies doubt Turkish reliability; rivals cannot predict Turkish behavior; Turkey itself faces the risk that strategic autonomy becomes strategic isolation.

What remains constant is geography. The Bosphorus will still connect the Black Sea to the world. Anatolia will still bridge Europe and Asia. Turkey will still sit at the crossroads where great power competition, energy flows, and regional conflicts intersect. Understanding Turkey—its history, its geography, its internal tensions, and its strategic choices—is essential for comprehending the emerging order in Europe, the Middle East, and beyond.

The pivot state will continue to pivot. The question is in which direction.