The Balkans

The Balkans have earned their reputation as Europe’s “powder keg”—the region where the assassination of an Austrian archduke triggered World War I, where ethnic conflicts in the 1990s produced Europe’s worst violence since 1945, and where great power rivalries continue to simmer. Understanding why this peninsula generates such persistent instability requires understanding its geography, history, and the unresolved tensions that define it.

Geographic Character¶

The Mountains¶

The Balkans are defined by mountains:

• The Dinaric Alps run along the Adriatic coast
• The Balkan Mountains cross Bulgaria
• The Pindus range divides Greece
• The Carpathians frame the region to the north

This terrain creates:

• Natural barriers that separate communities
• Difficult terrain for conquest and integration
• Economic isolation and underdevelopment
• Defensible positions for resistance movements

Unlike the great European plains, the Balkans resist political unification.

The Crossroads¶

The region sits at the intersection of civilizations:

• West and East: Latin Christianity meets Eastern Orthodoxy
• Europe and Asia: The land bridge between continents
• Christian and Islamic: The Ottoman legacy of Muslim communities
• Sea and land powers: Access to Mediterranean, Aegean, Adriatic, and Black Sea

Every major empire has sought to control or influence this crossroads.

Strategic Waterways¶

Several critical passages pass through or near the Balkans:

• The Bosphorus and Dardanelles (Turkish Straits) linking Black Sea to Mediterranean
• The Adriatic Sea route to Central Europe
• The Danube River connecting Germany to the Black Sea
• The Vardar-Morava corridor linking the Aegean to Central Europe

Control of these routes has driven centuries of competition.

Historical Layers¶

The Roman Legacy¶

The Balkans were divided by the Roman Empire:

• The Latin West (Croatia, Slovenia) looked toward Rome
• The Greek East (Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece) looked toward Constantinople
• This division persists in religious and cultural orientation

The Byzantine-Ottoman Succession¶

Byzantium and then the Ottoman Empire dominated for centuries:

• Orthodox Christianity became intertwined with political identity
• The Ottoman millet system organized populations by religion
• Muslim communities (Bosniaks, Albanians, and others) emerged
• The “Eastern Question”—what happens as Ottoman power declines—shaped European diplomacy for 200 years

The National Awakening¶

The 19th and 20th centuries brought nationalism:

• Greece achieved independence (1832)
• Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Montenegro followed
• Each new nation-state contained minorities and claimed territories held by others
• Borders and populations never aligned cleanly

The Yugoslav Experiment¶

The South Slavs united in Yugoslavia (1918-1991):

• Serbs, Croats, Slovenes, Bosniaks, Montenegrins, Macedonians brought together
• Interwar kingdom, then Tito’s communist federation
• Maintained unity through authoritarianism and careful ethnic balancing
• Collapsed violently when communist control ended

The 1990s Wars¶

The Breakup¶

Yugoslavia’s dissolution produced Europe’s worst conflict since World War II:

• Slovenia (1991): Brief conflict, quick independence
• Croatia (1991-95): Ethnic cleansing, Croatian Serb enclaves, eventual Croatian victory
• Bosnia (1992-95): Three-way conflict, Srebrenica genocide, Dayton Accords
• Kosovo (1998-99): Serbian repression, NATO intervention, eventual independence

Approximately 140,000 died; millions were displaced.

International Response¶

The wars drew in outside powers:

• United Nations: Peacekeepers deployed, often ineffectively
• NATO: Bombing campaigns against Serbs (1995, 1999)
• European Union: Diplomatic efforts, post-war stabilization
• Russia: Support for Serbia, resentment of NATO intervention

The interventions established precedents—and grievances—that persist.

Unresolved Issues¶

The 1990s settlements left problems:

• Bosnia-Herzegovina: Divided into Federation and Republika Srpska; dysfunctional governance; Serb separatist rhetoric
• Kosovo: Independent since 2008 but unrecognized by Serbia, Russia, and others
• North Macedonia: Name dispute with Greece resolved, but tensions with Bulgaria
• Serbia: Refuses to recognize Kosovo; torn between EU aspiration and Russian affinity

The region is stable compared to the 1990s but not fully at peace.

Great Power Competition¶

Western Integration¶

The European Union and NATO have sought to incorporate the Balkans:

• Slovenia and Croatia: EU and NATO members
• Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia: NATO members; pursuing EU accession
• Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo: At various stages of EU accession process

The theory: integration brings stability, democracy, and prosperity.

Russian Influence¶

Russia maintains influence, particularly among Orthodox populations:

• Serbia: Historical, religious, and political ties; Russia opposes Kosovo independence
• Republika Srpska: Russian support for Serb entity within Bosnia
• Montenegro: Russian-linked coup attempt (2016); Russian property investments
• Energy: Dependence on Russian gas in some countries

Moscow views the Balkans as an arena to contest Western expansion.

Turkish Engagement¶

Turkey has increased its regional role:

• Ottoman legacy provides cultural and religious ties
• Connections with Muslim communities (Bosniaks, Albanians)
• Economic investment and development assistance
• Occasionally competing with both EU and Russia

Chinese Investment¶

China’s Belt and Road Initiative has reached the Balkans:

• Infrastructure projects in Serbia and elsewhere
• Ports, highways, railways
• Leverage for Beijing in Europe
• Complicating EU accession (governance concerns)

Contemporary Dynamics¶

Serbia: The Pivotal State¶

Serbia remains the region’s largest and most contested country:

• Kosovo issue: Recognition would close the path to EU but remains domestically unacceptable
• Russian relations: Close ties despite EU aspirations
• Regional influence: Relationship with Republika Srpska; tensions with Croatia
• Vučić government: Increasingly authoritarian; balancing East and West

Serbia’s choices will shape the region’s trajectory.

Bosnia’s Fragility¶

Bosnia-Herzegovina remains Europe’s most fragile state:

• Dayton structure: Two entities plus Brčko District; weak central government
• Serb separatism: Dodik’s Republika Srpska threatens secession
• Ethnic division: Institutionalized in constitution and politics
• Frozen conflict potential: International presence prevents violence but does not resolve issues

Kosovo’s Limbo¶

Kosovo’s status remains contested:

• Independence: Declared 2008; recognized by over 100 countries including US, UK, Germany
• Non-recognition: Serbia, Russia, China, Spain, and others refuse recognition
• Internal challenges: Governance, corruption, economic underdevelopment
• Serbia normalization: Intermittent talks without breakthrough

North Macedonia’s Progress¶

North Macedonia resolved its name dispute with Greece (2019) and joined NATO:

• Demonstrates that Balkan problems can be solved
• But EU accession blocked by Bulgarian disputes over history and identity
• Shows limits of EU’s transformative power

Structural Challenges¶

Economic Underdevelopment¶

The Western Balkans lag behind European averages:

• GDP per capita well below EU levels
• High unemployment, especially among youth
• Brain drain as educated people emigrate
• Corruption and weak institutions impeding development

Democratic Backsliding¶

Several countries have experienced authoritarian drift:

• Serbia under Vučić
• Republika Srpska under Dodik
• Albania under Rama (concerns about media freedom)
• Weakening checks and balances

Ethnic Tensions¶

Inter-ethnic relations remain fraught:

• Memory of 1990s violence
• Nationalist rhetoric in politics
• Divided educational systems
• Occasional incidents escalating tensions

Future Scenarios¶

Successful Integration¶

The optimistic scenario: - EU accession process continues and eventually succeeds - Economic development reduces grievances - Kosovo-Serbia normalization achieved - Democratic governance consolidates

This would require EU commitment that is currently uncertain.

Frozen Instability¶

The muddling-through scenario: - Current dynamics continue indefinitely - Neither full integration nor renewed conflict - Periodic crises managed without resolution - Region remains in European periphery

This is the most likely near-term outcome.

Renewed Conflict¶

The pessimistic scenario: - Bosnia fragments; Republika Srpska secedes - Kosovo-Serbia tensions escalate - Great power competition intensifies - Violence returns to the region

This cannot be ruled out, particularly if international attention wanes.

Conclusion¶

The Balkans illustrate how geography shapes politics. Mountains that divide communities, crossroads that attract empires, borders that cut across ethnic groups—these physical realities have produced centuries of conflict and continue to generate instability.

The region matters beyond its size because of what it represents: the challenge of managing diversity, the limits of international intervention, the persistence of ethnic nationalism, and the continuing relevance of great power competition in Europe.

Understanding the Balkans provides insight into some of the most difficult questions in international relations: Can diverse populations share states? Can outside powers stabilize conflict zones? Can history’s wounds heal? The answers remain uncertain, and the Balkans remain, as they have been, a laboratory for the possibilities and limits of political order.